WxSim & WU Forecast Comparison

WesterhopeWX uses WXSim to produce a local forecast using the data gathered from the weather station and supplemented by other weather stations and weather buoys at 06:00, 11:00, 15:00, and 21:00. The following tables compare the accuracy of the temperature forecasts produced by Weather Underground and WXSim against the actual high and low temperature recorded by this weather station.

Morning Forecast @ 06:00

Weather Underground (WU), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)
Updated: 17-02-19 at 05:52
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0°C High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS
17-02-19 13   13 6   2 10   7 5   -1 9   5 6   5 12   10 8   4
16-02-19 11 12 3 7 7.7 -1 13   3 6   -1 10   3 5   -2 9   5 6   4
15-02-19 13 14.7 3 7 8.5 -1 11 12 3 6 7.7 -1 13   3 6   -2 11   5 4   4
14-02-19 13 11.4 3 2 1.5 -1 13 14.7 3 7 8.5 -1 13 12 3 7 7.7 -2 12   5 6   4
13-02-19 11 9.8 3 5 7.2 -1 12 11.4 3 2 1.5 -1 13 14.7 3 7 8.5 -2 11 12 5 7 7.7 4
12-02-19 11 11.3 3 7 8.6 -1 11 9.8 3 5 7.2 -1 12 11.4 3 3 1.5 -2 13 14.7 5 6 8.5 4
11-02-19 7 7.9 3 1 1.2 -1 11 11.3 3 7 8.6 -1 10 9.8 3 4 7.2 -2 12 11.4 5 3 1.5 4
10-02-19 7 6.8 3 1 1.2 -1 7 7.9 3 1 1.2 -1 10 11.3 3 6 8.6 -2 11 9.8 5 3 7.2 4
05-02-19 5 8.6 3 2 1.9 -1 8 6.8 3 2 1.2 -1 7 7.9 3 3 1.2 -2 9 11.3 5 6 8.6 4
04-02-19 7 7.8 3 -2 0 -1 5 8.6 3 3 1.9 -1 8 6.8 3 2 1.2 -2 7 7.9 5 3 1.2 4
03-02-19 5 4.2 3 2 3.2 -1 7 7.8 3 -1 0 -1 6 8.6 3 3 1.9 -2 8 6.8 5 2 1.2 4
02-02-19 3 2.6 3 -3 -4.9 -1 4 4.2 3 2 3.2 -1 6 7.8 3 1 0 -2 7 8.6 5 3 1.9 4
31-01-19 3 1.9 1 -1 -2.3 -2 4 2.6 3 -1 -4.9 -1 4 4.2 4 -2 3.2 -2 4 7.8 5 0 0 4
30-01-19 3 3.2 3 -4 -4.2 -2 3 1.9 4 -2 -2.3 -1 4 2.6 3 -1 -4.9 -1 4 4.2 4 -2 3.2 0
Results WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS
# Succ 12 4 12 2 11 2 10 2 10 2 7 1 8 2 6 0
% Succ 92.3   30.8 92.3   15.4 91.7   16.7 83.3   16.7 90.9   18.2 63.6   9.1 80.0   20.0 60.0   0.0
Ave Error 1.1   5.1 1.0   4.4 1.2   5.6 1.3   4.7 1.2   5.8 2.1   5.9 1.5   4.6 2.0   3.3
Net Error -0.2   -5.0 -0.4   -3.4 -0.3   -5.2 -0.2   -3.8 -0.4   -5.7 -0.3   -5.2 -0.9   -4.6 -1.0   -0.5
Std Dev 0.8   3.3 0.7   3.2 0.8   2.7 0.5   3.0 0.6   2.4 0.8   2.9 0.5   2.0 0.9   0.6

Afternoon Forecast @ 11:00

Weather Underground (WU), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)
Updated: 17-02-19 at 10:52
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0°C High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS
17-02-19 12   14 6   3 10   10 5   0 9   6 6   4 12   11 8   3
16-02-19 12 12 3 7 7.7 -1 13   3 6   -1 10   3 4   -2 9   5 6   4
13-02-19 11 14.7 3 6 8.5 -1 13 12 3 2 7.7 -1 14   3 7   -2 11   5 6   4
07-02-19 7 11.3 3 3 8.6 -1 10 14.7 3 5 8.5 -1 8 12 3 2 7.7 -2 7   5 -1   4
06-02-19 8 8.7 3 2 3.8 -1 7 11.3 3 3 8.6 -1 11 14.7 3 6 8.5 -2 8 12 5 2 7.7 4
05-02-19 6 3.7 3 2 3.7 -1 8 8.7 3 2 3.8 -1 7 11.3 3 3 8.6 -2 10 14.7 5 6 8.5 4
04-02-19 7 7.8 3 -2 0 -1 5 3.7 3 2 3.7 -1 8 8.7 3 2 3.8 -2 7 11.3 5 3 8.6 4
01-02-19 3 4.2 3 -1 3.2 -1 4 7.8 3 -4 0 -1 5 3.7 3 1 3.7 -2 5 8.7 5 0 3.8 4
31-01-19 3 3.4 2 -1 -1.3 -2 4 4.2 3 -1 3.2 -1 4 7.8 3 -3 0 -2 4 3.7 5 1 3.7 4
25-01-19 11 3.2 12 7 -4.2 10 9 3.4 11 3 -1.3 5 4 4.2 6 -1 3.2 2 4 7.8 3 -1 0 3
24-01-19 4 4.8 5 -1 0.7 1 11 3.2 13 7 -4.2 11 9 3.4 12 3 -1.3 5 5 4.2 6 1 3.2 0
23-01-19 2 2.4 3 -2 -2.4 0 4 4.8 6 -1 0.7 1 9 3.2 11 5 -4.2 10 6 3.4 11 1 -1.3 2
20-01-19 6 2.8 7 -3 -3.4 1 4 2.4 6 1 -2.4 3 3 4.8 6 -3 0.7 2 3 3.2 5 -1 -4.2 2
19-01-19 3 2.4 6 0 1.8 3 6 2.8 7 -2 -3.4 1 5 2.4 5 1 -2.4 3 3 4.8 5 -2 0.7 3
Results WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS
# Succ 8 5 9 4 6 3 4 2 4 3 1 3 4 4 1 2
% Succ 61.5   38.5 69.2   30.8 50.0   25.0 33.3   16.7 36.4   27.3 9.1   27.3 40.0   40.0 10.0   20.0
Ave Error 2.0   4.6 2.6   5.1 2.9   5.7 4.0   6.2 3.1   5.7 4.2   6.6 2.6   4.4 3.2   3.1
Net Error 0.1   -2.0 -0.7   -1.6 0.5   -1.3 -0.7   -0.9 -0.3   -1.7 -1.1   -1.7 -1.9   -1.9 -2.1   -0.1
Std Dev 2.1   3.7 2.9   4.0 2.2   3.4 2.5   3.9 1.6   3.1 1.2   2.9 1.3   2.2 1.3   1.4

Evening Forecast @ 15:00

Weather Underground (WU), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)
Updated: 17-02-19 at 14:52
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0°C High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS
17-02-19 n/a   12 6   2 10   9 5   1 9   8 6   5 12   10 8   3
16-02-19 12 12 3 7 7.7 -1 13   3 6   -1 10   3 4   -2 9   5 6   4
09-02-19 n/a 14.7 3 1 8.5 -1 7 12 3 1 7.7 -1 7   3 1   -2 11   5 5   4
08-02-19 11 10.5 3 4 2.9 -1 8 14.7 3 1 8.5 -1 7 12 3 1 7.7 -2 6   5 -1   4
07-02-19 7 6.7 3 3 3.8 -1 10 10.5 3 5 2.9 -1 8 14.7 3 2 8.5 -2 7 12 5 -1 7.7 4
04-02-19 8 8.7 3 -2 3.8 -1 5 6.7 3 2 3.8 -1 8 10.5 3 2 2.9 -2 7 14.7 5 3 8.5 4
03-02-19 4 4.2 3 2 3.2 -1 7 8.7 3 -1 3.8 -1 6 6.7 3 3 3.8 -2 9 10.5 5 3 2.9 4
01-02-19 2 2.6 3 -1 -4.9 -1 4 4.2 3 -4 3.2 -1 5 8.7 3 1 3.8 -2 5 6.7 5 1 3.8 4
29-01-19 3 3.4 2 -3 -1.3 -1 3 2.6 3 -5 -4.9 -2 3 4.2 4 0 3.2 0 3 8.7 1 1 3.8 0
26-01-19 10 4.4 10 2 0.6 4 4 3.4 5 -2 -1.3 1 4 2.6 4 0 -4.9 3 3 4.2 5 -2 3.2 0
20-01-19 5 10.6 5 -2 8.3 0 4 4.4 6 1 0.6 2 3 3.4 6 -3 -1.3 1 3 2.6 5 -1 -4.9 2
18-01-19 2 2.4 3 1 1.8 2 4 10.6 8 -1 8.3 2 5 4.4 6 -2 0.6 2 4 3.4 4 0 -1.3 3
17-01-19 4 3.6 3 -1 -1.7 1 3 2.4 5 1 1.8 3 4 10.6 8 1 8.3 2 4 4.4 6 -2 0.6 2
16-01-19 6 8.3 6 0 -0.3 3 4 3.6 6 -1 -1.7 3 3 2.4 5 1 1.8 2 4 10.6 6 0 8.3 4
Results WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS
# Succ 9 5 9 2 9 4 6 2 6 3 4 2 6 4 2 3
% Succ 69.2   38.5 69.2   15.4 75.0   33.3 50.0   16.7 54.5   27.3 36.4   18.2 60.0   40.0 20.0   30.0
Ave Error 1.4   4.3 2.8   4.5 2.1   4.2 3.5   4.6 2.7   4.4 3.5   5.3 3.1   4.2 4.1   3.3
Net Error -0.3   -3.2 -1.6   -2.3 -1.7   -2.7 -3.0   -2.5 -2.2   -2.9 -2.6   -3.1 -2.9   -3.1 -3.1   -0.6
Std Dev 1.9   3.4 3.0   2.8 2.3   3.3 3.0   2.3 1.8   3.2 1.9   2.5 2.0   2.7 2.1   1.3

Night Forecast @ 21:00

Weather Underground (WU), Actual Observed (Act), WxSim Generated (WS)
Updated: 13-02-19 at 15:50
Goal Forecast Day Day +1 Day +2 Day +3
± 2.0°C High Low High Low High Low High Low
Date WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS
13-02-19 10   3 6   -1 13   3 2   -1 14   3 7   -2 11   5 6   4
12-02-19 n/a 9.8 3 7 8.4 -1 11   3 6   -1 13   3 2   -2 14   5 7   4
05-02-19 7 11.3 3 3 1.2 -1 8 9.8 3 2 8.4 -1 7   3 3   -2 10   5 6   4
03-02-19 n/a 6.7 3 4 -0.9 -1 7 11.3 3 -2 1.2 -1 5 9.8 3 3 8.4 -2 8   5 2   4
01-02-19 n/a 4.2 3 -2 -4.9 -1 3 6.7 3 -4 -0.9 -1 4 11.3 3 1 1.2 -2 5 9.8 5 1 8.4 4
30-01-19 -4 1.9 -3 3 -1.3 2 -2 4.2 0 3 -4.9 4 -1 6.7 -1 4 -0.9 3 -2 11.3 -2 4 1.2 4
29-01-19 -3 -2.8 -1 3 3.2 4 -4 1.9 -2 3 -1.3 4 -2 4.2 0 4 -4.9 1 1 6.7 0 4 -0.9 4
28-01-19 0 1.1 1 3 3 4 -3 -2.8 -1 3 3.2 3 -4 1.9 -2 2 -1.3 4 2 4.2 0 4 -4.9 1
26-01-19 2 -1.2 4 4 4.4 5 -1 1.1 0 4 3 3 0 -2.8 1 4 3.2 4 -2 1.9 0 3 -1.3 3
24-01-19 0 7.9 1 11 9.7 12 7 -1.2 10 9 4.4 11 3 1.1 6 5 3 7 1 -2.8 1 4 3.2 3
23-01-19 -2 -2.4 -3 4 4.8 4 -1 7.9 1 9 9.7 11 7 -1.2 7 8 4.4 9 2 1.1 5 4 3 7
21-01-19 1 -3.8 3 3 2.4 5 -3 -2.4 1 3 4.8 5 -2 7.9 1 5 9.7 8 1 -1.2 6 9 4.4 10
20-01-19 -3 -2.4 1 4 3.6 6 1 -3.8 3 3 2.4 6 -2 -2.4 1 4 4.8 5 -1 7.9 2 5 9.7 8
19-01-19 1 1.5 3 6 5.2 6 -2 -2.4 2 4 3.6 6 1 -3.8 3 4 2.4 6 -2 -2.4 3 4 4.8 7
Results WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS WU Act WS
# Succ 5 5 10 6 4 2 6 5 2 0 5 3 2 1 3 2
% Succ 38.5   38.5 76.9   46.2 33.3   16.7 50.0   41.7 18.2   0.0 45.5   27.3 20.0   10.0 30.0   20.0
Ave Error 2.9   3.9 1.5   2.3 3.9   5.2 2.9   3.4 5.4   5.9 3.3   4.0 4.6   5.7 4.0   3.6
Net Error -1.2   -1.1 1.1   0.4 -1.7   -0.6 0.3   1.4 -2.2   -1.0 1.3   1.2 -3.2   -1.7 1.4   2.3
Std Dev 2.2   2.6 1.5   2.3 2.7   2.7 2.2   3.3 1.8   1.6 2.3   2.3 2.9   2.8 2.2   1.4